KMT-TPP Alliance Reaches Stalemate！Ko Keeps Party List Open, Prepares for Elimination Battle
United Daily News, November 3, 2023
With the 2024 presidential and legislative elections approaching, a discreet meeting held on October 31 among three prominent figures in Taiwanese politics, namely Chairman Eric Chu of the Kuomintang (KMT), KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je, lasted a lengthy 53 minutes but yielded no consensus.
TPP Keeps Party List Open for Potential Collaboration with Gou
After several inconclusive discussions between the KMT and TPP, signs of a potential breakdown in collaboration are becoming apparent to the TPP. It is understood that Ko is preparing for an all-out fight, including preparing for a forfeiture battle, while expanding his range of cooperation with high-profile figures such as Terry Gou, the founder of Foxconn, and prominent KMT representatives. In recent days, Ko held a campaign meeting within his party to discuss the order of the TPP’s party list for the legislative election. However, considering the need to reserve space for cooperation with the KMT or Gou, further discussion on the party list was suspended.
A source within the Ko campaign revealed that the TPP’s party list has started to circulate. It includes former Legislator Huang Kuo-chang, Ko campaign Executive Director Huang Shan-shan, Spokesman Chen Chao-tzu of former President Chen Shui-bian's medical team, and Chairwoman Xu Chunying of the Taiwan New Residents Development Association, among others. The TPP believes that it is able to secure eight seats but hopes to attain 10. The final ranking will depend on changing conditions in the presidential election, and a smaller party like the TPP doesn't need to make quick public announcements.
Whether a KMT-TPP coalition materializes is key to deciding the outcome of the 2024 presidential election; it remains at a stalemate. On October 30, Chu and Ko held their first "party consultation" and reached a consensus on four key points, including maximizing the number of legislator seats. Subsequently, on October 31, Chu acted as a mediator to facilitate a night meeting between Ko, Hou, and himself. There was widespread speculation that with Chu taking control of the integration leadership, the KMT-TPP coalition would gradually come into view. However, despite these efforts, the two sides failed to reach a consensus. Nevertheless, Chu has not given up and continues to emphasize his commitment to "stack goodwill."
Chu Facilitates Night Meeting, But Ko and Hou Remain at Impasse
Insiders suggest that the night meeting was orchestrated by Chu, who genuinely hopes that the KMT and TPP can form a united front and work together to achieve their goal of unseating the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). In the meeting, Ko set his bottom line, stating that he would accept anyone as the main or vice-presidential candidate based on the results of a nationwide poll. He also expressed his willingness to relinquish the power to form the cabinet. However, Hou insisted that they should not rely on a nationwide poll and presented survey results indicating that even a "Hou-Ko ticket" would be about 4 percent ahead of DPP presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te. The two sides couldn't reconcile their positions, leading to an impasse.
Before this meeting of the three key figures, due to Ko's previous challenge to Hou, saying, "If I let you run, you still wouldn't make it," members of the TPP inquired through channels about Hou’s stance on cooperation. According to informed sources in the TPP, besides being dissatisfied with Ko's remarks about him not winning, Hou was also quite displeased with Ko's statement that "the loser can recommend a running mate." Allegedly, members of Hou's team privately responded to the Ko campaign, stating, "We can always go back to being the New Taipei City mayor."
Regarding the reports that Ko told Hou directly that "Ko Chih-en or Han Kuo-yu coming forward would both be stronger than you," according to insiders close to Ko, this comment was initially made with good intentions. It was an attempt to suggest a solution to the predicament, as Ko believed that Hou might be uncomfortable with the role of vice president. He thought that a recommendation from the KMT would be a good alternative. Ko had privately mentioned within the party that figures like former legislator Ko Chih-en or Han would be suitable for the role. However, this rumor left Hou rather dissatisfied, leading to a rift between them.
Furthermore, the TPP conducted inquiries to gauge the acceptance by KMT grassroots of a "nationwide poll." According to a high-ranking member of the TPP, the party observed that Chu indeed had a sincere intention to mediate between the two sides. Several friendly KMT officials and legislator candidates conveyed the message to the TPP that a "nationwide poll would not be inappropriate." However, Hou remained consistently opposed to the idea.
As the KMT-TPP coalition appears to be at an impasse, the Ko campaign is preparing to consolidate opposition forces. It is understood that TPP legislator-at-large candidates Huang Kuo-chang and Huang Shan-shan are poised to lead the list. Recent discussions have revolved around Xu Chunying, who has faced scrutiny for her pro-China statements. The Ko campaign believes that Xu needs to clarify her stance publicly. However, the TPP still leans toward reserving one secure spot on the list for candidates such as new residents and mainland spouses, emphasizing the value of embracing diverse voices.
Recent reports have indicated that the Ko campaign has been signaling a potential collaboration with Terry Gou, following the model of the 2020 election when Gou recommended candidates to the TPP. This has led to speculation about the possibility of Ko forging an alliance with Gou. It is understood that while Ko and Gou have maintained communication, they have not yet formally discussed the matter. In the 2020 election, Gou recommended more than one legislator-at-large candidate, but Ko only accepted Kao Hung-an. It remains uncertain whether Gou is interested in recommending legislator-at-large candidates again.
If the KMT-TPP alliance negotiations eventually break down, it will likely impact the legislative elections for the KMT. Whether the TPP’s party vote will also be affected is a question. According to Deputy Secretary-General Hsu Fu of the TPP, 60 percent of the public wishes to vote out the DPP, so while Ko's supporters may be disappointed if the KMT-TPP coalition does not materialize, this won't significantly affect the overall momentum of the TPP. Ko is determined to win the presidential election, which will only strengthen the TPP position. On the other hand, the impact on the KMT will likely be more significant.
With the KMT-TPP coalition talks reaching a critical juncture, the Ko campaign has stated, "No more meetings without a clear plan," while the Hou campaign responded with, "The train won't wait for those who miss it." Blaming each other for the failure to cooperate has left non-DPP voters frustrated. However, if the KMT-TPP coalition cannot be achieved, it is likely that the presidential election will turn into a "battle of independent campaigns," benefiting Lai. Both the KMT and TPP will then have to bear the consequences of their indecision.